Copper prices extend gains on solid demand and supply concerns

Commodity Update, Friday, 31st of July, 2020

Copper prices have extended recent gains, supported by the robust industrial demand from its top consumer China, coupled with supply chain worries in Chile, the world’s largest producer of the red metal.

The prices of Copper, which is used as an index of economic health by investors, climbed at $3 per pound, rebounding almost 50% from their multi-year lows in March, recovering all losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic and trade war combined.

The massive rally in the prices of the base metal was supported from a continued cyclical recovery in major economies such as the US and China after the pandemic fallout, together with the weaker US dollar, which makes dollar-denominated metals cheaper for holders of foreign currency.

However, copper’s rally has recently lost some steam as physical demand subdued with the on-going spikes in COVID-19 cases around the world, the escalation of US-China tensions and worries over the economic recovery in China.

US markets 1% lower on historic Q2 GDP contraction

Market Brief, Friday, 31st of July, 2020

Dow Jones index fell 1% on Thursday after the US government released the worst quarterly Gross Domestic Product print on record in the second quarter, while the weekly unemployment insurance claims increased for a second straight week.

US dollar was weaker across the board on Thursday, extending its downward trend, as the record slump in the GDP data, underscores the deep economic impact of the coronavirus in the US economy coupled with news that the US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of delaying the November election.

However, Nasdaq Composite futures jumped 1% on overnight trading after some of the biggest tech names such as Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple, reported better-than-expected earnings and double-digit revenue growth for the second quarter of the year.

Asian markets were lower this morning following the overnight losses from Wall Street. Nikkei index led the losses with 2% after record spikes in COVID-19 cases in Tokyo coupled with a stronger Japanese Yen.

Gold prices rose 1% on Friday morning, as the dovish policies from the Federal Reserve, the weaker US dollar, and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases drove investors towards the safe-haven metal.

Market Briefing: Global markets steady ahead of Fed rate policy meeting

Global financial markets were little changed on Wednesday morning, as investors await the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, while Congress lawmakers continue their debate over the next coronavirus-related fiscal rescue package.


Coronavirus Update:

The following data was compiled by Johns Hopkins University:
Global cases: More than 16.6 million
Global deaths: At least 658,914
Top five countries: United States (over 4.3 million), Brazil (over 2.4 million), India (over 1.4 million), Russia (over 822,000), South Africa (over 459,000)


Market Reaction:

US stock index futures edged higher by 0.30%, with the Dow Jones index implying an opening near 26.450 points and the Nasdaq Composite at 10.600, while the European indices were also flat.

Fig.01: Dow Jones index, Daily chart


Federal Reserve Policy Meeting:

The Federal Reserve will end its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday night, releasing a statement at 21:00 GMT+3, while its chairman Mr. Jerome Powell will host a press conference at 21:30 GMT+3.

Given the worries about the record spike of COVID-19 infection cases in some US states and the gloomy outlook for the US economy, investors expect the Federal Reserve to continue with its dovish policy stance, keeping interest rates near zero for a longer time while increasing its purchases of long term debt.

Meanwhile, the Fed extended most of its emergency lending programs by three months during its first day of the meeting yesterday, in response to the weaker-than expected US economy.


Forex Market:

The DXY-dollar index, against a basket of major currencies fell to 93.30, reaching a fresh 2-year low. The greenback lost more than 10% since March, due to the dovish policy from the Federal Reserve and the massive fiscal rescue packages from Trump’s administration to support the US economy.

Fig.02: DXY-dollar’s index, Daily chart

Furthermore, the US dollar was pressured after the resurgence of new virus cases in Florida and California, coupled with the further deterioration in the relationship between US and China, fading the hopes for a quicker economic recovery.


Economic Calendar for July 29, 2020 (GMT+ 3:00):

US markets 1% lower ahead of Federal Reserve’s rate decision

Market Brief, Wednesday, 29th of July, 2020

US stock markets fell 1% on Tuesday after disappointing corporate earnings and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later today. Meanwhile, the market sentiment deteriorated after US lawmakers faced difficult talks last night over a proposed fiscal stimulus package.

Asian markets were lower on Wednesday morning, following the risk aversion sentiment from Wall Street. Nikkei index led the losses with 1%, as the shares of Japanese automaker Nissan Motors plunged 10% after the company forecasted huge losses by the end of 2020.

The precious metals rally lost some steam yesterday as the prices of Gold and Silver pulled back from their recent multi-year highs amid some profit-taking actions and strengthening in the dollar.

Crude oil fell more than 1% yesterday over fears about the gasoline demand outlook given the resurgence of COVID-19 cases around the world, coupled with concerns for the fate of the US fiscal stimulus package.

Looking at the forex markets, we can see the recovery of the US dollar from its two-years lows, supported by stock market losses and a spike in coronavirus cases in California and Florida.

US dollar fell to its lowest level since June 2018

Forex Update, Tuesday, 28th of July, 2020

The US dollar fell to its lowest level since June 2018, as investors continue to flee away from the greenback on concerns over the US economy, the falling real yields, the boiling U.S.-China tensions, and the monetary policies by the Federal Reserve.

The world’s reserve currency has been tumbling since it topped in March, losing its status as a safe-haven currency, in response to the falling US real yields reaching all-time lows. The bond market prices a weaker economic recovery as unemployment claims have been rising coupled with the increase in COVID-19 infection cases mainly in California and Florida. 

The downward pressure on the dollar index heightened last week after the escalation of US-China tensions, forcing investors to look for safety in Gold, Euro, and the Japanese Yen. China ordered the US to close its Chengdu-based consulate last Friday, retaliating after the US shut a Houston-based Chinese consulate a few days earlier.

However, the greenback found some support this morning ahead of the well-expected Federal Reserve meeting that begins later today, where the FED is expected to keep interest rates near zero for the years to come. In addition, the US Congress is expected to agree on a proposed fiscal rescue package of about $1 trillion to support the economy.

Gold hits new record high of $1,980/oz, Silver at $26/oz

Market Brief, Tuesday, 28th of July, 2020

Gold price extended its massive gains, after hitting a new record high at $1,980 per ounce in the early Asian trade. Furthermore, Silver also jumped 5%, reaching the $26 per ounce level for the first time after 7 years. 

Looking at the forex market, we can see the weakness of the US dollar across the board yesterday. The dollar index fell to a 2-year low as investors worry about the damage from the pandemic to the US economy, ahead of the latest outlook from the Federal Reserve. 

Moving to the equity markets, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1,7% yesterday, boosted by big gains in major technology names, ahead for a big week of corporate earnings, and the passage of a new fiscal rescue package. 

Asian markets were higher on Tuesday morning, following the overnight positive sentiment in Wall Street. Kospi and Hang Seng led the gains with 1% despite the recent escalation in US-China tensions. 

Crude oil prices edged higher this morning, gaining support from the expected 1 trillion dollars stimulus plan from the US Congress coupled with the weaker dollar.