18th October 2019
The stock market sentiment continues to improve after sharp interest rates decline, especially in the third quarter. The main indicators on a global basis have stabilized, hovewer the Political Risk (Britain-Italy etc) still exists, but there is a visible improvement during the last period.
17th October 2019
Sterling appreciated 5.5% last week and the volume has increased in recent days when London and Brussels restarted the Brexit negotiations. According to representatives of Number 10, the debate was constructive, and progress was made. Markets expect both sides to reach in preliminary agreement before the EU summit on Thursday. An agreement must be ratified by all members of the Summit before it can be transferred to the British House of Commons. In addition, Prime Minister Boris Johnson must support the DUP in the House of Commons, especially now that his majority in government is gone.
15th October 2019
US stocks remain nervous, but the chance to insert in the recession trend is minimized. Mixed economy data and the political news coming from theUS pushed the markets to adopted wait and see stance. Impeachment proceedings will likely add to uncertainty and impede any possible legislative progress. We think impeachment is likely to be negative on consumer and business confidence.
10th October 2019
The EUR/USD remains undervalue, but the probability of a break above the 1.1020 seems to have increased. If the price breaks the 1.1020 level, it could possibly force the pair as high as 1.1079 and 1.1174 respectively. In contrast, the first support is found at the 1.0916 and 1.0858 respectively. If the price breaks below the 1.0858 level, it could possibly force the pair as low as 1.0581. The RSI (W) remains neutral to oversold territory. CCI (W) closed at the oversold territory.
4th October 2019
EURNOK remains extremely overbought, but the probability that it will reach the 9.9957 level is increasing. If the price breaks the 9.9957 level, it could possibly force the pair as low as 9.9221 and 9.8783 respectively. In contrast, the first resistance is found at the 10.0012 and 10.0594 respectively. If it breaks the 10.0594, then the next level will be at 10.0990 (Aug high).
2nd October 2019
The AUD/USD remains under pressure, but the probability of a break above the 0.6809 seems to have increased. If the price breaks the 0.6809 level, it could possibly force the pair as high as 0.6899 and 0.7146 respectively. In contrast, the first support is found at the 0.6671 and 0.6640 respectively. If the price breaks below the 0.6640 level it could possibly force the pair as low as 0.6600. The RSI (W) remains at the oversold territory. CCI (W) closed at the oversold territory.
26th September 2019
The Eurozone is close to be entering a downtrend which means that the weaker labour markets and inflationary pressures are deteriorating. The actual number of service index closed at 52.0 from 53.3 (expected), the production closed at 45.6 from the previous 47.00 (seven years low) and this was the result of the German Manufacturing index recording the lowest level in a decade.
25th September 2019
The EUR/USD remains on the defensive, but the probability of a break above the 1.1110 seems to have increased. If the price breaks the 1.1110 level, it could possibly force the pair as high as 1.1240 and 1.1507. In contrast, the first support is found at the 1.0834 and 1.0703 respectively. If the price breaks below the 1.0703 level, it could possibly force the pair as low as 1.0500. The RSI (W) remains at the oversold territory. CCI (W) is close at the oversold territory.
18th September 2019
The most important economic event today is the Fed’s policy meeting. The markets expect that the FOMC will cut the interest rate by 0.25bp and add 1.00% easing in total over the next 12 months. Fed Chair Powell stated recently that the FOMC would act and help to sustain the expansion. The labour market still on track, but the effects of probability for global recession and trade uncertainty are increasing giving the pressure to manufacturing, transportation and trade sectors.
17th September 2019
The Last ECB meeting delivered a mixed result. First of all, the monthly asset purchase targets were lower than expected (expected 30 bio – actual 20 bios), but on the other hand, the new QE gives the opportunity for further monetary easing is very high now. Conversely, the interest rate differential between USD and EURO did not benefit the US dollar following the ECB’s significant easing policy due to FED meeting on Wednesday with markets discount in a 25bp cut. On a technical basis, the EUR/USD remains undervalue. First support is found at the 1.0834 and Resistance at the 1.1110.
13th September 2019
The ECB decrease the ECB Deposit facility rate from -0.40 to -0.50 as expected on Thursday, approved a new stimulus package and restarting bond purchases of 20 billion a month from November. Furthermore, decrease the terms for a long-term loans to banks and Introduced a tiered deposit rate to support Eurozone Banks. The ECB's Draghi said that the ECB has Quantitative Easing headroom for quite a long time.