Market Recap: Risk off once again as stocks around the world continued to plunge. US stocks were down 2% and there are no major market indices up this morning across Asia. Today’s market: The Ifo indices are expected to continue their seemingly inexorable decline. All three are forecast to fall. There seems to be a big disconnect between current conditions and expectations.
Market Recap: Euro weakness was the main theme following the ECB meeting on Thursday. Today’s market: The Empire State manufacturing survey is expected to start off the monthly Fed surveys with a small drop. Nonetheless, it should still be within the recent range, meaning no real change.
The week in review: Brexit still bubbling, France boiling. UK PM May survived the long-awaited “no confidence” vote by members of her party. Meanwhile, some concessions by President Macron in France have failed to quell the demonstrations there. The BoJ has pledged to keep its extraordinary policy in place until inflation is back to 2%.
Market Recap: Interesting movement in the FX market over the last 24 hours, with most currencies little changed but NZD plunging and AUD not far behind. Today’s market: We’re waiting for the end of the EU and European Commission meetings to hear from the press conference what was decided in general, particularly about the moves to increase usage of the euro.
Market Recap: GBP was the big winner overnight after UK PM May survived the long-awaited “no confidence” vote by members of her party, but at the cost of having to promise that she won’t be a candidate at the next election. Today’s market: The focus today will of course be on the ECB meeting.
Market Recap: A much less volatile day after several days of huge movements. Most of the action was in oil, which rose after the American Petroleum Institute reported a huge 10.2mn barrel drawdown in inventories in the latest week. Today’s market: Today we get the main indicator of the week, the US consumer price index (CPI).
Market Recap: Faced with the prospect of total defeat, UK PM May decided to defer today’s vote on the Brexit agreement and go to Brussels to seek further “assurances” from EU leaders. Oil fell back yesterday. The COT report showed a big increase in CAD shorts in the latest week. Special focus: how far can GBP fall? Today’s market: I think Brexit pessimism will dominate regardless of what the figure is, unless of course we get some massive surprise like Canada provided on Friday.
Market Recap: Usually the USD is a safe-haven currency that benefits in a risk-off environment, but today it was the next-to-last performer despite lower stock prices across Asia. Today’s market: By the time you read this comment, a lot of indicators will be out already – Chinese inflation data, Japan’s final estimate of Q3 GDP, and the Japanese current account data. Also probably Germany’s trade figures.
Background to the market: Does the US yield curve predict recession? There’s a lot of talk nowadays about the yield curve. It reminds me of the good ol’ days of the bond vigilantes and the talk about how the bond market “can intimidate everybody.” Also, a look at the week ahead: Brexit vote, EC/EU summit, ECB meeting, US CPI, Tankan.
Market Recap: After several days of dramatic volatility, FX rates were rather subdued on Thursday. There were no major moves. Today’s market: It’s NFP day! As I say every month, I don’t think the focus should be on payrolls – employment has already surpassed the Fed’s target, so moving further into full employment isn’t going to affect their policy.
Market Recap: The risk-off mood continues today as stock markets in Asia are all lower once again. In this context, it’s no surprise that CHF & JPY are higher and AUD is lower. AUD was also hit by a lower-than-expected trade surplus for October. Today’s market: Some of the data that was scheduled for yesterday was postponed to todaybecause of President Bush’s funeral, so today will be a very crowded schedule. The main event will be the OPEC meeting in Vienna.
Market Recap: Every stock market in Asia is down this morning, so I don’t see any big change in the trend today, unless someone decides to walk back the statement. Today’s market: US stock markets are closed today, and it’s recommended that bond trading be closed too, in memoriam for the late President Bush. FX markets will be open but in the absence of most other markets, they will probably be thin and gappy during US time.