GBPUSD was stable this morning around the 1.2650 level. The new MP vote will now take place on the week of 14th January, 2018. The recent ECJ ruling limits the risk of a ‘’no deal’’ thus offering a 35-40% probability for a second referendum following the Grieve Amendment.
EURUSD remains positive as French President Macron apologised to protesters promising various measures, such as increasing the minimum wage by Euro 100 per month. In addition, positive news arrived from Italy and the EU as Moscovici said the talks were very ‘’constructive’’ and will continue on Dec 12.
Cabinet ministers have been putting pressure on PM May to postpone the vote until she has chance of winning it. Prime Minister May needs 320 votes to vote on the Brexit agreement on Tuesday but has only 226 voters currently.
The USD weakened against major peers on Thursday as the Treasury yields fell. Last week, Fed's President, Jerome Powell said that the US Interest Rates were nearing neutral levels which markets interpreted as signalling a slowdown in rate hikes.
USDCAD appreciated after BOC left the Key Interest Rate unchanged at 1.75%. In addition, the low oil price and the arrest of a top Chinese manager (Huawei) in Canada at the request of US would put some pressure on the BOC’s prospects.
The RBA left the base interest rate unchanged at 1.50% as expected. Furthermore, the RBA did not change the monetary policy at the moment and actually there is no indication when it is going to start normalising the interest rate.
Sterling remains very sensitive and nervous amid ongoing concerns over Brexit. In addition, the Bank of England Carney said on Wednesday that a ‘’no deal’’ scenario could risk the UK economy falling into recession.
GBPUSD depreciated after US President warned that the proposed Brexit deal could heavy the UK’s Ties with the USA. Furthermore, Trump said that the current draft agreement was a positive deal for EU and meant that the UK may not be able to trade with US.
Turkish Lira appreciated due to the positive feeling on sentiment in EM Markets. Also, a massive interest rate hike by the CBT from 17.75% to 24% on September 13 and the devaluations of Oil price other reasons to support the Turkish Lira.