• Fed keeps a wait-and-see monetary stance, but the last downside risk developments (China /US trade, slow Retail Sales) will probably test the FOMC strategy. The probability to decrease interest rate (25bp) at the end of 2019 has increased above 80% compared to the 60% one month earlier.
• According to ECB’s meeting in April, the interest rates are expected to remain stable. The next step for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy depends on the US tariffs policy for European auto sector, US/China trade talks and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit and the budget of the Italy.
• The defence stance in monetary policy from BOE stems from the political uncertainty in the UK (new Prime Minister) and the latest escalation of trade related conflicts between China and the United States.
Source : Bloomberg, Commerzbank
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