Today's meeting of the European Central Bank will approach monetary policy in two scenarios:
• First scenario: the Council will stick to its view that the economy will recover in the second half of the year.
• Second: whether it will reduce the expectations for growth and inflation outlook to cause a reaction in the euro.
• The EU Commission has recommended starting a disciplined process against Italy (Negative for Euro). Due to high public debt sector around 130%, according to the criteria, 60% are permitted.
1. The Market believes that the ECB will have a dovish stance and discounting a 10bp rate cut by next period.
2. It is expected that after the first quarter figures there will be an upward revision of the growth and inflation outlook for 2019.
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